SWODY1
SPC AC 020050
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT THU JUL 01 2010
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES...
...MT/EXTREME NWRN ND...
DEEP WSW FLOW REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS
THIS EVENING AND SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING
ACROSS THE REGION. PRIMARY LEAD WAVE APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NWD INTO
THE WRN PRAIRIES OF CANADA...GLANCING PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN MT. A
WEAKER IMPULSE...IMPLIED BY MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTENING IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE ENE ACROSS WY THIS EVENING.
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER IMPULSE...WILL
LIKELY TRACK ENE ALONG THE CANADIAN/MT BORDER. 00Z GGW SOUNDING
SHOWED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MLCINH...BUT A RELATIVELY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER. AS SUCH...ANY WELL-ESTABLISHED STORM CLUSTER WILL
BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS NERN MT THIS EVENING BEFORE
MOVING INTO SASKATCHEWAN.
FARTHER S...THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED DURING PEAK HEATING AND
RESULTED IN COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THERMAL BUOYANCY THAN YESTERDAY. A
FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WY/SD HIGH PLAINS.
THESE STORMS MAY OFFER A MARGINAL HAIL/SEVERE WIND THREATS...BUT
GIVEN OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY FARTHER TO THE E IN THE NEB PANHANDLE
AND WRN SD...DO NOT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GROW UPSCALE SUFFICIENTLY TO
POSE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT.
...S TX...
VAD WIND PROFILERS AND 00Z BRO/CRP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SHEAR IN
THE LOWEST 1-2KM HAS RELAXED SINCE THIS MORNING AS REMNANT ALEX
CONTINUES W INTO NCNTRL MEXICO. NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND HAS YIELDED PERSISTENT CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY FROM
KLEBERG COUNTY NWD TO MATAGORDA BAY. WHILE A BRIEF SPIN-UP WILL BE
POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT HAS
SHIFTED TOWARD HEAVY RAINS/FLASH FLOODING.
..RACY.. 07/02/2010
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