Saturday, September 25, 2010

KARX [260135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 260135
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
835 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM FLOOD DODGE 44.13N 91.56W
09/25/2010 TREMPEALEAU WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

COUNTY ROADS J AND JJ CLOSED IN DODGE. IN ADDITION...A 60
YARD STRETCH OF RAILROAD TRACKS NEAR COUNTY J IN DODGE
HAVE BEEN TAKEN OUT BY FLOOD WATERS.


&&

$$

AJ

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 685

WWUS20 KWNS 260103
SEL5
SPC WW 260103
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-260100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 685
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
803 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 685 ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

KANSAS
OKLAHOMA
TEXAS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260047
SWODY1
SPC AC 260046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHARPLY DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. A REINFORCING SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM A REMNANT SMALL
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH PARTS OF THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE LEAD
SURFACE FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WEST SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE...BUT PERHAPS
BECOME MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES
AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY 12Z SUNDAY.

...PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES FURTHER THROUGH THE
02-04Z TIME FRAME...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES PROBABLY WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WITH LINGERING
STORMS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

..KERR.. 09/26/2010

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KGID [260047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 260047
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
747 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 AM HAIL 9 N ESBON 39.95N 98.43W
09/25/2010 M2.50 INCH JEWELL KS PUBLIC

REPORTS OF 2 TO 2.5 INCH DIAMETER HAIL IN THE AREA FROM 9
MILES NORTH OF ESBON OVER TO NORTH BRANCH. WINDSHIELDS
BUSTED OUT OF VEHICLES.


&&

$$

NWS

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KMPX [260041]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 260041
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
741 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 PM FLOOD SPRINGFIELD 44.24N 94.98W
09/25/2010 BROWN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE QUARTER MILE OF RAILROAD TRACKS UNDER WATER JUST WEST
OF TOWN.


&&

$$

AJZ

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KMKX [252336]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 252336
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
635 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM TSTM WND GST 1 ENE KENOSHA 42.59N 87.80W
09/21/2010 M45 MPH LMZ646 WI C-MAN STATION

GUST TO 39KTS ON LAKESHORE.


&&
DELAYED REPORT
$$

MBK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1896

ACUS11 KWNS 252248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252248
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-252345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1896
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0548 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS/NWRN OK INCLUDING PARTS OF THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685...

VALID 252248Z - 252345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685
CONTINUES.

GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS NWRN OK INTO
NERN TX PANHANDLE...WHILE TRENDS SUGGEST THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE ERN EXTENT OF WW 685.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE SWWD ALONG
THE SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTO A REGION OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/STRONGER SURFACE HEATING. AT 2245Z...THE MOST VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS WERE MOVING SWD THROUGH NWRN OK /HARPER AND WOODS INTO
WOODWARD/ELLIS COUNTIES/...WITH DISCRETE STORMS FORMING OVER THE
NERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING THROUGH A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
INDICATING A WEAKENING TREND IN THE INSTABILITY. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO BOTH THE STORMS OVERTURNING THE AIR MASS AND ANVIL LEVEL CLOUDS
SPREADING DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN OK...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY COOLER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/ DIMINISHING INSTABILITY WITH SWD EXTENT.
THUS...THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS MAY BE AT THEIR MAX AT THE
PRESENT TIME. A WEAKENING TREND IN STORM INTENSITY FOR THE OK
STORMS SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SWD INTO WEST CENTRAL OK
/S OF WW 685/ WHERE INSTABILITY IS MUCH LESS.

OTHERWISE...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..PETERS.. 09/25/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 35630003 35600217 36160216 36720018 36989892 37279817
37439802 37839687 38319616 37999548 37029657 36439805
35630003

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KDDC [252234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KDDC 252234
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
534 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0449 PM TORNADO 4 E BUTTERMILK 37.11N 99.27W
09/25/2010 COMANCHE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROTATION IN THE CLOUD BASE WITH DEBRIS ON THE GROUND WAS
OBSERVED. THIS IS A CORRECTED REPORT FOR THE INITIAL
SIGHTING OF THE TORNADO.


&&

$$

MRUSSELL

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KTOP [252218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 252218
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
517 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1226 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NW WAMEGO 39.23N 96.34W
09/25/2010 E60 MPH POTTAWATOMIE KS PUBLIC

DELAYED REPORT. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.


&&

$$

JL

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KDDC [252154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 252154
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
454 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0452 PM TORNADO 7 S COLDWATER 37.16N 99.34W
09/25/2010 COMANCHE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROTATION IN THE CLOUD BASE WITH DEBRIS ON THE GROUND WAS
OBSERVED.


&&

$$

MRUSSELL

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KMAF [252044]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 252044
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
344 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0334 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 NNE MIDLAND 32.05N 102.06W
09/25/2010 MIDLAND TX STORM CHASER

WATER RUNNING OVER THE CURBS


&&

$$

SCHULDT

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KMAF [252039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 252039
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
337 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0323 PM FLASH FLOOD MIDLAND 32.00N 102.08W
09/25/2010 MIDLAND TX STORM CHASER

WATER RUNNING OVER THE CURBS ON TARLETON STREET BY LEE
HIGH SCHOOL.

0330 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 W MIDLAND 32.00N 102.13W
09/25/2010 MIDLAND TX STORM CHASER

FLASH FLOODING REPORTED 4 MILES NORTH OF MAF BY BUS BARN.
OBSERVER REPORTED 1.4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES.


&&

$$

SCHULDT

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251957
SWODY1
SPC AC 251955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NE TX
PANHANDLE...NW OK AND SRN KS...

SEVERAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THE 20Z ISSUANCE.
THE FIRST CHANGE IS TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TO COVER WW 685.
THE SECOND CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES FROM NRN KS
TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE WHERE COOLER AIR EXISTS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE LAST CHANGE IS TO TRIM THE THUNDER-LINE FROM ECNTRL
NEB AND NRN KS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE POST-FRONTAL RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS.

..BROYLES.. 09/25/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010/

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS INTO
SOUTHEAST NEB WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF OK/KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED. RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON 12Z RAOBS COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG
A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE /NAM...NMM...HRRR...RUC/ ALL AGREE ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM NORTH OF ICT BACK-BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD FOR A
FEW HOURS INTO NORTHWEST OK BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS ZONE
SHOW SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL
STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HAVE OPTED TO ADD
A SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA GIVEN THE FOCUSED THREAT AREA AND RATHER
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STORM INITIATION.

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KMAF [251930]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 251930
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM FLASH FLOOD 16 SSE COLORADO CITY 32.19N 100.75W
09/25/2010 MITCHELL TX STORM CHASER

18 INCHES OF WATER WAS REPORTED IN PLACES OVER ROAD 208
SOUTH OF 644.


&&

$$

SCHULDT

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KTOP [251920]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 251920
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
220 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0124 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 E ALTA VISTA 38.86N 96.40W
09/25/2010 WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO TREES UP TO 2 FEET IN DIAMETER SNAPPED IN HALF ALONG
K4 HIGHWAY. DELAYED REPORT AND TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
RADAR.


&&

$$

MRC

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 685

WWUS20 KWNS 251854
SEL5
SPC WW 251854
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-260100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 685
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF BORGER TEXAS TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF EMPORIA KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON
ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT FROM CENTRAL KS
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND
ACROSS A NARROW BUT STRONG INSTABILITY CORRIDOR. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
HELP TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 36020.


...HART

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KABQ [251843]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 251843
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1243 PM MDT SAT SEP 25 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 E ROGERS 33.98N 103.13W
09/25/2010 ROOSEVELT NM TRAINED SPOTTER

3.40 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED IN 2 HOURS 50 MINUTES.
MINOR DAMAGE ON PROPERTY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002150

$$

KJ

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KTOP [251829]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 251829
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
129 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0128 PM HAIL 1 S DWIGHT 38.83N 96.59W
09/25/2010 E0.88 INCH MORRIS KS LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1895

ACUS11 KWNS 251803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251802
KSZ000-OKZ000-252000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1895
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH S-CNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251802Z - 252000Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH CNTRL AND S-CNTRL KS
BY 20-21Z AND EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN OK BY EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WW.

THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN NEB SWWD THROUGH
N-CNTRL AND WRN KS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TROUGH INDICATED
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL AND SWRN KS. AXIS OF MID 60S
DEWPOINTS HAS ADVECTED NEWD THROUGH WRN OK AND CNTRL KS WHICH ALONG
WITH DIABATIC WARMING HAS BOOSTED MLCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES APPROACH 80F. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LINE OF CUMULUS INCREASING ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM SWRN
THROUGH CNTRL KS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SSEWD THROUGH NEB INTO
NRN KS WILL LIKELY AUGMENT FRONTAL SURGE ACROSS KS. STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS THE CAP WEAKENS THIS
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION AS WELL AS A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS.

..DIAL.. 09/25/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 37390026 38269879 38899702 38209630 36899763 36349949
37390026

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 251654
SWODY2
SPC AC 251652

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL GULF COAST...
A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WILL DIG SWD AND CLOSE-OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE QUITE NUMEROUS SUNDAY MORNING ON THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL
JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM. IN RESPONSE...A LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST
WHERE ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM 70 TO 75 F. THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT A
MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE MS DELTA EWD
TO THE FL PANHANDLE AND FAR SW GA.

..BROYLES.. 09/25/2010

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