MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1944

ACUS11 KWNS 110340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110340
OKZ000-TXZ000-110515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1944
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SWRN OK...WRN N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 697...

VALID 110340Z - 110515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 697
CONTINUES.

...WANING LARGE HAIL PROBABILITIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...

COLD FRONT...AUGMENTED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...CONTINUES TO SURGE
SEWD THROUGH CNTRL/SWRN OK AND WRN N TX AT 0330Z. CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF ELEVATED STORMS HAVE EVOLVED ATOP A DEEPENING FRONTAL
INVERSION OVER CNTRL OK WITH COMPARATIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED
ACTIVITY IN SRN OK/WRN N TX AMIDST STRONGER INSTABILITY.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK AND WRN N TX
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS TONIGHT. AS THE NUMBER OF STORMS INCREASE
AND COMPETITION FOR LEFT-OVER WANING INSTABILITY COMMENCES...THE
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL DECREASE. THUS...A NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER...AT LEAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

..RACY.. 10/11/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON 35419963 36279801 35979704 34329711 34059822 33539922
33729979 34689986 35419963

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KOUN [110210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110210
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
910 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 PM HAIL 3 N CYRIL 34.94N 98.20W
10/10/2010 E1.00 INCH CADDO OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THAT HAIL WAS COVERING HIGHWAY 8
NORTH OF CYRIL.

&&

$$

BAIN

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KOUN [110206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110206
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
906 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0903 PM HAIL 4 E MEERS 34.78N 98.50W
10/10/2010 E1.00 INCH COMANCHE OK AMATEUR RADIO

THE HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR MEERS PORTER HILL ROAD AND HWY
58.

&&

$$

TY/LB

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KOUN [110159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110159
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
859 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0852 PM HAIL MEERS 34.78N 98.57W
10/10/2010 E0.88 INCH COMANCHE OK TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

TY/LB

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KOUN [110144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110144
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
844 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 PM HAIL STECKER 34.95N 98.32W
10/10/2010 E1.00 INCH CADDO OK PUBLIC

&&

$$

BAIN

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KOUN [110135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110135
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
834 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0808 PM HAIL VERDEN 35.08N 98.09W
10/10/2010 E1.00 INCH GRADY OK TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

TY/LB

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KOUN [110117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110117
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
817 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 PM HAIL ALTUS 34.64N 99.33W
10/10/2010 E1.00 INCH JACKSON OK EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

TY/LB

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KOUN [110104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110104
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
804 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0801 PM HAIL 2 E ANADARKO 35.07N 98.21W
10/10/2010 E1.00 INCH CADDO OK TRAINED SPOTTER

LOTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED WITH A WIND GUST OF 59
MPH.

0801 PM TSTM WND GST 2 E ANADARKO 35.07N 98.21W
10/10/2010 M59 MPH CADDO OK TRAINED SPOTTER

LOTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED.

&&

$$

TY/LB

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1943

ACUS11 KWNS 110054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110054
OKZ000-TXZ000-110230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1943
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SWRN OK...WRN N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 697...

VALID 110054Z - 110230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 697
CONTINUES.

...LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH LATE
EVENING...

DISCRETE STORMS/ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A FRONT
EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS SWRN OK/WRN N TX WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE
INTO COMPLEX LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS AS THEY APPROACH THE I-44
CORRIDOR THROUGH 03Z. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND PRE-EXISTING
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WILL MAINTAIN THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL /UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS/
IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS. LEADING STORMS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN
PRIOR TO ARRIVING IN THE SRN OKC METRO AREA AS THEY BECOME MORE
REMOVED FROM STRONGEST INSTABILITY RESERVOIR. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY
WILL BE CONFINED TO SWRN OK/WRN N TX THROUGH LATE EVENING.

MEANWHILE...LINEAR STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BACKBUILDING SW FROM
NCNTRL OK TOWARD THE I-40 CORRIDOR NEAR CLINTON WITH SUBSEQUENT SLOW
EWD MOVEMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED ATOP A 1-1.5 KM
FRONTAL INVERSION AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

..RACY.. 10/11/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON 35419963 36279801 35979704 34329711 34059822 33539922
33729979 34689986 35419963

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110054
SWODY1
SPC AC 110053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE SRN
PLAINS FROM NWRN TX TO SWRN OK...

...NW TX TO SW OK...
ZONE OF FOCUSED DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLING SWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT. QG-FORCING ALONG SRN FLANK OF THE LOW WILL SUPPORT A BROKEN
BAND OF SURFACE-BASED DEEP CONVECTION FROM NWRN TX NEWD ACROSS THE
RED RIVER INTO OK. A SMALL MCS WILL ALSO BE SUSTAINED ATOP A MORE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS FAR NERN OK AND SERN KS THIS EVENING.

THE MOST CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH REGARD TO
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...APPEARS TO BE WELL SAMPLED BY 00 UTC OUN
RAOB WHICH SHOWS PRE-STORM MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG AND
SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30KT. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR
SUSTAINED STORM UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGER SCALE LIFT
TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT. SPC HAILCAST FROM THE OUN
OBSERVED SOUNDING RESULTS IN A HAILSTONE SIZE OF 1.5 INCHES AND
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HEIGHTENED BY RECENT STORM REPORTS
FROM WEST OF THE CNTRL OK AREA.

RELATIVELY DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD AIRMASS COULD ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE GRADUALLY EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

...ELSEWHERE...
SPORADIC TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE PLAINS UPPER
LOW...FROM ERN WY/NERN CO TO NWRN KS AND CNTRL NEB. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LIFT WITH A COLD
FRONT ENCOUNTERS WEAK INSTABILITY...AND A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER...FROM ERN ORE INTO WRN ID OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 10/11/2010

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KOUN [110051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110051
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
750 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM HAIL 2 W ANADARKO 35.07N 98.28W
10/10/2010 E1.25 INCH CADDO OK AMATEUR RADIO

0748 PM HAIL 1 N ANADARKO 35.08N 98.24W
10/10/2010 E1.75 INCH CADDO OK AMATEUR RADIO

HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

$$

TY/LB

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KOUN [110020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110020
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
720 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0713 PM HAIL FORT COBB 35.10N 98.44W
10/10/2010 E1.75 INCH CADDO OK AMATEUR RADIO

HALF-DOLLAR TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN FORT
COBB.

&&

$$

TY/LB

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KOUN [110012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110012
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
712 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM HAIL CARNEGIE 35.10N 98.60W
10/10/2010 E1.00 INCH CADDO OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT AT THE CARNEGIE POLICE STATION ESTIMATED
NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

$$

BAIN

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KOUN [110005]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110005
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
705 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0703 PM HAIL 3 W FORT COBB 35.10N 98.49W
10/10/2010 E1.25 INCH CADDO OK AMATEUR RADIO

QUARTER TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL 3 TO 4 MILES WEST OF
FORT COBB ON HIGHWAY 9.

&&

$$

TY/LB

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KOUN [110001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110001
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
701 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0657 PM HAIL 2 NE CARNEGIE 35.12N 98.57W
10/10/2010 M1.50 INCH CADDO OK PUBLIC

&&

$$

TY/LB

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KOUN [102348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 102348
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
648 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0633 PM HAIL 4 ESE HOBART 35.00N 99.03W
10/10/2010 E0.88 INCH KIOWA OK AMATEUR RADIO

THE HAIL WAS REPORTED 2 MILES EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 ON
OZARK TRAIL ROAD.

0647 PM HAIL 2 N CARNEGIE 35.13N 98.60W
10/10/2010 E1.25 INCH CADDO OK AMATEUR RADIO

THE HAIL WAS REPORTED ON HWY 58.

&&

$$

TY/LB

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KOUN [102342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 102342
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0636 PM HAIL 6 NE MOUNTAIN VIEW 35.16N 98.68W
10/10/2010 E1.00 INCH WASHITA OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL 6.5 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOUNTAIN
VIEW...REPORT RELAYED THROUGH KIOWA COUNTY DISPATCH.

&&

$$

BAIN

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KTOP [102248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 102248
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
548 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0527 PM TSTM WND GST SCRANTON 38.78N 95.74W
10/10/2010 E50 MPH OSAGE KS PUBLIC

ESTIMATED WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH.

&&

$$

BARJENBRUCH

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KTOP [102247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 102247
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
547 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0516 PM TSTM WND GST 2 S OSAGE CITY 38.61N 95.83W
10/10/2010 E50 MPH OSAGE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 50 MPH
BLOWING OVER LOOSE ITEMS IN YARD.

&&

$$

BARJENBRUCH

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 697

WWUS20 KWNS 102229
SEL7
SPC WW 102229
OKZ000-TXZ000-110500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 697
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 530 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ALTUS OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN OK...AND TRACK SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.

...HART

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