SWODY1
SPC AC 161242
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT MON APR 16 2007
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE/OCCLUDING LOW NEAR THE NRN NJ COAST HAS REACHED PEAK
INTENSITY AND WILL MOVE LITTLE WHILE FILLING TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS DEEP CYCLONE...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO BASIN...LEAVING A RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE AIR MASS
ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. FARTHER W...A CLOSED LOW OVER WRN AZ/SW UT
THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD TO NM AND SRN CO TONIGHT.
ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS LOW WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES...AND A WEAK LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM ERN NM INTO W TX BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
..SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE TODAY...
AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SW/WRN GULF BASIN...BUT
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IS NOT EXPECTED
THIS SOON. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY WILL BE DRIVEN BY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WITH RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 20S NEAR THE FRONT RANGE IN
NM...AND 35-40 F FROM E/SE CO INTO W TX. THE POOR MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...THOUGH INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SPEED
SHEAR COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE MODIFYING
GULF AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO REACH NW TX LATE TONIGHT...AND MAY HELP
SUSTAIN A FEW SMALL /ELEVATED/ THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OVERNIGHT.
..ERN UT/WRN CO TODAY...
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT IN 12Z SOUNDINGS AT GJT AND
SLC...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DEEP CONVECTION.
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CO VALLEY UPPER LOW...ALONG WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT/CONTINUATION OF
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK THIS AREA...THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
.THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 04/16/2007
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