SWODY1
SPC AC 161627
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT MON APR 16 2007
VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..EASTERN CO...
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN AZ IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG
HEATING WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHEAST CO...WITH
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM. VERY MINIMAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CO/NM BORDER SOUTHWARD.
HOWEVER...BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS EASTERN CO WILL ENHANCE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND HELP CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHERN CO AND SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.
..WESTERN CO...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HELP
YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN CO INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER EASTERN AZ WILL
ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY
OCCUR IN STRONGER CELLS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER DARK.
.HART/JEWELL.. 04/16/2007
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