SWODY2
SPC AC 161726
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT MON APR 16 2007
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
..SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG UPPER TROUGHS WILL EJECT AT A RATHER LOW
LATITUDE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO OK/TX WITH MUCH OF THIS REGION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF JET STREAK. VERY COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES...H5 AOB MINUS 20C...WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
NCNTRL TX/SRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. IT ALSO APPEARS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL
DEVELOP WEST OF I-35...SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITHIN FAVORABLE POST
DRYLINE ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO
THE N-E OF ADVANCING SFC LOW/WIND SHIFT.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR EARLY CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WITHIN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL SUPPRESS
STRONGEST INSTABILITY TO THAT REGION NEAR THE RED RIVER...SWD INTO
ECNTRL TX WHERE SFC-BASED CAPE SHOULD BE AOA 1000 J/KG BY 21Z.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AHEAD OF SFC LOW/DRY LINE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM
NWRN TX TO NEAR DAL. LARGE HAIL CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE THE
GREATEST RISK DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN THIS RAPIDLY
RECOVERING WARM SECTOR. CLUSTERS OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH MORE STABLE AIR.
.DARROW.. 04/16/2007
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