SWODY1
SPC AC 150053
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SERN AL...THE FL
PANHANDLE...CNTRL AND SRN GA THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN SC...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN
STATES INCLUDING THE CAROLINAS...
..SERN U.S. THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SERN LA
NEWD TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN NRN AL...THEN CONTINUES NWD AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TN AND KY. WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM
THE LOW THROUGH NERN AL...NRN GA AND INTO SC. A LARGE CLUSTER OF
PRE-FRONTAL STORMS WITH BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS PERSISTS FROM THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL GA. AXIS OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
HAS SPREAD INLAND AHEAD OF THE STORMS WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG
FROM NRN FL THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL GA. LATEST VWP DATA SHOW STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY OF 300+ M2/S2 ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS IN VICINITY
OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST
WITH THIS ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT CONTINUES EAST THROUGH CNTRL
AND SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE.
OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM
SERN MS THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL AL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO POSE SOME
SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE WEST OF PRIMARY LOW LEVEL
JET AXIS AND ARE MOVING INTO A REGION THAT HAS BEEN RENDERED LESS
UNSTABLE BY THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION.
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WITHIN REGION OF
INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH NRN GA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS GA THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN NWD ADVECTION OF
MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE CAROLINAS IN WAKE OF RETREATING
WARM FRONT. SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENS. MODEST LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF HEATING SUGGEST MLCAPE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG. THE MODEST INSTABILITY COULD SERVE AS A
LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NWD
AND EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
AND VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMES INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
.DIAL.. 04/15/2007
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