SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150210
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-150345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 150210Z - 150345Z
SEVERE STORM THREAT /INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWS/ IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN 03-05Z AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.
AS OF 0155Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS
INTENSIFYING IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE APPALACHIAN SPINE FROM YORK
COUNTY SWWD TO ABBEVILLE AND MCCORMICK COUNTIES IN SC. 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE AIR MASS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN IS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF LESS THAN 200-400
J/KG. LATEST NAM/WRF GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT STRONG MOISTURE
FLUX WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME AS LLJ INCREASES
TO 50-60 KT WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN NC.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONCURRENTLY STRENGTHEN /ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/ WITH KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT BECOMING
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.
.MEAD.. 04/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...
33638254 34278231 34858137 35108061 35218006 34617954
33777948 33067980 32568056 32378105 32498150 32458191
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