SWODY2
SPC AC 140550
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN VA TO FAR NERN FL...
..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- EXTENDING SWD FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION -- IS FORECAST TO SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO MOVE EWD/OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN
TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF THIS BOUNDARY. IN ANY CASE...THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CLEAR FL/THE KEYS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
..SERN VA SWD INTO THE SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION...
STORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD OVER PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
REGION...THOUGH ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN DUE TO DIFFERING MODEL GUIDANCE.
IN ANY CASE...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE
HEATING GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND EARLY PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY DESPITE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
WHILE VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...EXPECT ATTM THAT OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 15%
SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM...FROM SERN VA SWD TO NERN FL.
HOWEVER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF FLOW/SHEAR...AN UPGRADE IN PROBABILITIES
COULD BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS IF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT -- PARTICULARLY OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
AND SERN GA.
.GOSS.. 04/14/2007
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