SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140355
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-140530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN AR/FAR WRN MS/NRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 137...
VALID 140355Z - 140530Z
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR WW 137 APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN AR
WITH A DIMINISHING THREAT ACROSS WCNTRL AR.
LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW STRONGEST STORMS IN WW 137 NOW OVER
CNTRL/ERN AR...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH SE OK. THE
OK STORMS HAVE WEAKENED SINCE THEY HAVE MOVED EAST FROM CNTRL
PORTIONS OF OK...WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL WERE RECEIVED
EARLIER THIS EVENING. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS
WCNTRL AR...WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN WORKED OVER FROM PREVIOUS
STORMS.
SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF LBR EWD TO SHV TO MLU WITH
THE 850MB WARM FRONT BETWEEN LIT/SGF PER 00Z UPPER AIR DATA. AXIS OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS CNTRL
AR/NRN LA WHERE LATEST VAD WIND DATA FROM LITTLE ROCK AND SHREVEPORT
INDICATE 50-60 KT OF FLOW ABOVE 1-2 KM...AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 60 KT.
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKEWISE CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ACROSS AR/LA...AS CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER BETWEEN 06-09Z...WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND FOR STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
.TAYLOR.. 04/14/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
33219245 33589327 35409235 35569166 35199041 35109021
33039025 33009136
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