SWODY3
SPC AC 300731
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT MON APR 30 2007
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
TRANSITION IN THE PATTERN CONTINUES DURING THE PERIOD INTO A LARGE
TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WRN U.S. WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING THRU THE MS
VALLEY AND A TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. LARGE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE SRN BRANCH
NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS.
..ERN MT INTO NERN WY AND THE WRN DAKOTAS...
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING NEWD THRU THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. BOTH MODELS ENHANCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A 40-60 KT LOW
LEVEL JET NWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. IN ADDITION...MAIN TROUGH
OVER THE WEST WILL HAVE EXIT REGION OF 60-70 MID LEVEL JET/110-120
KT UPPER LEVEL JET INTO THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL
BE COUPLED ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM A LOW OVER
CENTRAL/ERN MT SWWD INTO SERN UT WITH LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -4 AND
-6 IN THE WARM SECTOR.
..CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE EJECTED NEWD OVER THE REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION
FROM PREVIOUS MID/UPPER TROUGH. COMBINATION OF DPVA/MID/UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UPWARD ASCENT ACROSS THE
REGION FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH NAM/GFS PROVIDE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH GFS BEING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LIS NEAR -8.
GIVEN THAT DAYTIME HEATING WILL NEED TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS...SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
.MCCARTHY.. 04/30/2007
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