Monday, April 30, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0623

ACUS11 KWNS 300710
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300710
TXZ000-300845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CDT MON APR 30 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW TX...RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 200...

VALID 300710Z - 300845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 200 CONTINUES.

SVR POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEYOND SCHEDULED 8Z WW EXPIRATION
TIME...THEREFORE OPTIONS INCLUDE LOCAL EXTENSION OF WW IN TIME OR
REPLACEMENT WW.

BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN
HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AREA BETWEEN JCT-COT. NRN
PORTION OF THIS LINE N DRT APPEARS OUTFLOW-DOMINANT...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE DRIVEN BY SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL EVIDENT IN SFC
MESOANALYSIS ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX. SOMEWHAT MORE
DISCRETE/SUPERCELLULAR MORPHOLOGIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM DRT
AREA SWD -- INCLUDING POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS OVER NRN COAHUILA AT 7Z
THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS RIO GRANDE AND DRT AREA AROUND 730Z.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT FROM THAT ACTIVITY SSWWD INTO
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS REGION OF SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE ABOUT 60 NM W
EAGLE PASS. DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS ARE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES STILL MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS.

VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATED AT DRT BASED ON
VWP...WITH 50 KT LLJ CONTRIBUTING TO 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 330
J/KG...WITH MLCAPES IN 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS PROSPECTIVE STORM
INFLOW REGION W-S OF SAT. SBCINH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY E OF ABOUT I-35...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS. THESE FACTORS INDICATING SVR POTENTIAL DIMINISHES
SIGNIFICANTLY E OF LONGITUDE OF SAT.

ACTIVITY FARTHER NW ACROSS PORTIONS PECOS/CROCKETT/UPTON COUNTIES
MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL HAIL...ATOP COLD/STABLE SFC OUTFLOW LAYER
LEFT BEHIND BY EARLIER CONVECTION...HOWEVER TORNADO POTENTIAL
APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM.

.EDWARDS.. 04/30/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...MAF...

29860230 29910152 30280125 30640144 30990177 30800227
30670275 31120241 31510183 31600129 30690106 30460057
30829994 30519939 30079898 29509882 27259880 27279951
27619953 27679975 27819990 28009996 28140008 28240030
28560039 28660054 28880065 29090067 29330095 29470110
29580133 29770140 29770171 29760202

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