SWOD48
SPC AC 300836
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CDT MON APR 30 2007
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
..DISCUSSION...
PATTERN BECOMES INTERESTING AS ECMWF/GFS ARE FALLING IN LINE WITH
EACH OTHER. THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF/UKMET WITH THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. THE
ECMWF/UKMET FORM A LOWER LATITUDE TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHILE
THE GFS IS STILL OVER THE NWRN U.S. BEFORE DEEPENING THE VORTEX INTO
THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY FRIDAY AFTN MAY 4TH. THE MAIN
MESSAGE SEEMS TO BE THAT THIS WILL ENHANCE RETURN FLOW OF GULF
MOISTURE NWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES ON MAY 3 AND 4 AND
RE-ESTABLISHING THE DRYLINE ALONG THE CAP ROCK ESCARPMENT OF W TX.
IT LOOKS LIKE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS WILL THEN TURN
CYCLONICALLY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING OUT AND
IF A SECONDARY TROUGH DEVELOPS AS PER THE GFS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MAY
4-6 TIME FRAME.
.MCCARTHY.. 04/30/2007
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