SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300946
TXZ000-301145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 AM CDT MON APR 30 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTION S-CENTRAL/SW TX.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201...
VALID 300946Z - 301145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201
CONTINUES.
INITIAL MCS HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY...WITH ASSOCIATED GUST FRONT
MOVING EWD TO PORTIONS LLANO/BLANCO/KENDALL/BANDERA/NRN UVALDE
COUNTIES AS OF 930Z AND INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SBCINH. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDS WSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL KINNEY COUNTY TO JUST S DRT
AND WWD INTO MEX...QUASISTATIONARY NEAR RIO GRANDE AND WWD NOW THAT
DRT WINDS HAVE VEERED TO ELY FOLLOWING GUST FRONT PASSAGE.
ISOLATED/ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS GUST FRONT BRIEFLY MAY
INTENSIFY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL. HOWEVER...BULK OF REMAINING SVR
POTENTIAL THROUGH PRE-DAWN HOURS HAS SHIFTED BACK SW TOWARD SRN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION...ALSO IN ASSOCIATED
WITH ELEVATED UPDRAFTS ROOTED IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME ATOP
RELATIVELY STABLE OUTFLOW POOL...AND ASSOCIATED WITH 30-35 KT LLJ.
6Z DRT SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR SFC CONDITIONS N OF BOUNDARY YIELD
ELEVATED MUCAPES ABOVE 2000 J/KG...HOWEVER...PRIND CONSIDERABLE
STABILIZATION IS EVIDENT WITH NWD EXTENT IN MIDLEVELS AS WELL.
PRIND HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITHIN ABOUT 50-60 NM N OF
BOUNDARY...AND MAY BE MRGL. SOME OR ALL OF WW MAY BE CANCELLED
BEFORE SCHEDULED 13Z EXPIRATION IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
MEANWHILE...MAIN THREAT MAY HAVE EVOLVED TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
TSTMS DEVELOPING/TRAINING OVER SAME AREAS AS EARLIER ACTIVITY. REF
SPC HEAVY RAIN MCD 624 FOR MORE DETAILS IN THAT REGARD.
.EDWARDS.. 04/30/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...
29810176 30270117 30299935 30729890 30869793 29959840
29689878 29109880 29069938 28659943 28660007 28170012
28260030 28680042 28970068 29140071 29340090 29510117
29760143
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