SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121106
FLZ000-121330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 AM CDT THU APR 12 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S FL AND KEYS.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 121106Z - 121330Z
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS FL
PENINSULA...AND PERHAPS PORTIONS LOWER-MIDDLE KEYS...DURING NEXT FEW
HOURS. ISOLATED HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER
THREAT APPEARS TOO MRGL TO WARRANT WW.
RICHLY MOIST MARINE AIR MASS -- CHARACTERIZED BY 70S F SFC DEW
POINTS -- ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND OVER MORE OF SRN PENINSULA
BEFORE ARRIVAL OF MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME
HEATING FROM MORNING INSOLATION...SHOULD OFFSET WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO YIELD MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND WEAKENING
SBCINH. WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS -- EVIDENT IN AVAILABLE VWP DATA AND
IN RUC FCST SOUNDINGS -- WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL SHEAR WEAK AND
HODOGRAPHS SMALL. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS...HOWEVER....WILL AID IN
VENTING OF UPDRAFT COLUMNS ALOFT AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINED AND
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR SEGMENTED STRUCTURES.
.EDWARDS.. 04/12/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...TBW...
26098179 26878155 27038120 26638001 24908071 24528180
24638295 24628215 24758161 24878105 25038091 25098108
25268117 25438118 25728133 25918162 25778168
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