SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121225
NCZ000-VAZ000-121400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CDT THU APR 12 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NC...SERN VA.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 130...
VALID 121225Z - 121400Z
SVR THREAT CONTINUES OVER WW BUT IS DIMINISHING...AND WW MAY BE
CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 15Z EXPIRATION IF PRESENT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS CONTINUE.
STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OVER ATLANTIC WATERS E OF MHX AREA AND
S OF HSE...AS SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED BOW ECHO. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN OVER WATER WITH APEX OF BOW PASSING OVER -- OR VERY
CLOSE TO -- BUOY 41025 BEFORE 13Z. STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING
ALSO HAS MOVED OFFSHORE FARTHER N -- OFF ERN NC AND VA.
WEAK/PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE HAS MOVED EWD TO NEAR
ECG...NKT...OAJ...AND SHOULD CONTINUE CROSSING REMAINDER COASTAL
PLAIN AND SOUNDS THROUGH 15Z. VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES W OF
THAT LINE SHOULD CONTINUE...AS STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING EJECTS
NEWD ACROSS MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS PROCESS WILL FURTHER REDUCE
BOTH CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR. POCKET OF PRONOUNCED
MIDLEVEL WARMING -- EVIDENT IN 12Z GSO RAOB -- ALSO MAY FURTHER
RESTRICT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT W OF CONFLUENCE LINE.
.EDWARDS.. 04/12/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...
34557726 35127710 36447625 36757591 36167573 35637544
35247553 35027606 34587653 34687671 34657702
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