Wednesday, April 25, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0574

ACUS11 KWNS 250415
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250414
INZ000-ILZ000-250545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0574
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 250414Z - 250545Z

MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED
MARGINAL/LIMITED NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
WATCH ISSUANCE.

CURRENT ANALYSIS FEATURES WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL IL
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA/FAR SOUTHWEST OH. ALTHOUGH PERHAPS
IMPEDED SOMEWHAT BY MATURE MCS NEARING THE MO BOOTHEEL AS OF
04Z...BRANCH OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE
IMPINGING ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT PER REGIONAL PROFILERS.
AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS
CENTRAL IL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE PAST HOUR. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY MODEST -- SOURCE REGION MUCAPE VALUES UP
TO 1000 J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN IL PER RUC SOUNDINGS --
STRONG SHEAR IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER/HIGH SRH WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH MAY ENHANCE HAIL POTENTIAL.

.GUYER.. 04/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

40719049 40758927 40618777 40348665 40088597 39508547
39078569 39518746 39648936 39719027 40159093

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