SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250545
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-250715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0576
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...MO BOOTHEEL / FAR NERN AR / WRN KY / WRN TN+
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 184...
VALID 250545Z - 250715Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 184
CONTINUES.
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENT. THIS THREAT WILL
LIKELY EXTEND E OF WW 184 BY 06Z. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.
AS OF 0530Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BOWING LINE SEGMENT FROM
BUTLER COUNTY MO SWD THROUGH CLAY...DUNKLIN AND CRAIGHEAD COUNTIES
AR MOVING 260/40-45 KT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW AXIS OF
RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE ALONG THE MS RIVER...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
DECREASING POINTS E. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS NARROW
INSTABILITY AXIS INDICATE A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /LARGELY DUE TO
POOR LAPSE RATES/ WITH MLCAPES OF 100-200 J/KG.
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FAST SYSTEM MOTIONS AND MODERATE STRENGTH OF
VERTICAL SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH REMAINING PORTION OF
COMPARABLY STRONGER INSTABILITY. THEREAFTER..SOME WIND THREAT MAY
CONTINUE....THOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE
WEAK...LIKELY LIMITING MORE ORGANIZED WIND POTENTIAL.
.MEAD.. 04/25/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
37439028 37218900 35938931 35319006 35329110 35819120
35909155 37259131
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