SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250929
LAZ000-TXZ000-251100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST INTO WRN LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 185...
VALID 250929Z - 251100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 185 CONTINUES.
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 10-11Z ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA...POSSIBLY
INTO WRN LA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
DOWNSTREAM WW.
AS OF 0915Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A
QUASI-LINEAR...FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM
NEAR GGG SWD TO UTS TO JUST W OF HOU. CLOSE INSPECTION OF THESE
DATA SHOW THAT SYSTEM COLD POOL HAS SURGED WELL AHEAD /30-40 MILES
IN SOME AREAS/ OF MAIN CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS...PERHAPS INDICATING THAT
CAP REMAINS STRONG OVER INFLOW AIR MASS AND CONSIDERABLE ASCENT
ABOVE COLD POOL IS NECESSARY FOR PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC.
DESPITE THIS POTENTIAL CAPPING ISSUE...SYSTEM MOTION OF 40-45 KT
COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE A CONTINUED
THREAT OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW 185
AREA...POTENTIALLY INTO SWRN LA BY 10-11Z. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.
.MEAD.. 04/25/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
31319428 31279339 29899352 29809309 29249327 29079414
28319531 27479685 28519838 29309703 30259690 30639705
31299593 31669586 31769525
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