MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0580

ACUS11 KWNS 251056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251055
OKZ000-KSZ000-251300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251055Z - 251300Z

A HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KS/FAR NORTH
CENTRAL OK...AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHEAST OK THROUGH
THE MORNING. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED EARLY THIS
MORNING.

PRE-DAWN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES NEARLY STACKED LOW MIGRATING
EASTWARD ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER...WITH A DRY SLOT WRAPPING
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN KS AND A 1001 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NEAR PONCA CITY OK. BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...STORMS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS CENTRAL KS OVER THE PAST HOUR...INCLUDING A STRONG
STORM BETWEEN RUSSELL AND GREAT BEND AS OF 1030Z. SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE/SREF CONSENSUS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KS/FAR
NORTH CENTRAL OK...AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEAST
KS/NORTHEAST OK LATER THIS MORNING. AN AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-20 C AT 500 MB/ AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
FAVOR HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. 06Z OBSERVED
SOUNDING FROM LAMONT OK FEATURED A 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE IN EXCESS
OF 8.0 C/KM.

IT IS CURRENTLY THOUGHT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
ISOLATED/MARGINAL SUCH THAT A WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL
TRENDS.

.GUYER.. 04/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

37469921 38199933 38759876 38919722 38159586 37589559
37149560 36589599 36509680 36749808 37009880

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