SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252315
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-260045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SW AR...NW LA..ERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 252315Z - 260045Z
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SW AR...NW LA AND ERN TX
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HAIL WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER SW MO WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN AR AND SSWWD INTO NE TX. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE LUFKIN TX
AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT
STEEP...500 MB TEMPS ARE BELOW -14 C AND THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON REGIONAL PROFILERS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE IS RELATIVELY WEAK ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WINDS
HAVE VEERED AT THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED
BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE FACTORS SHOULD KEEP ANY
THREAT MARGINAL THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.
.BROYLES.. 04/25/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...
30599510 30519566 30949568 31949475 32879395 33849350
34129340 33939270 32759299 32069347 30979454
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