MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0590

ACUS11 KWNS 252338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252338
MOZ000-ARZ000-260115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0590
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO...SRN MO AND NCNTRL AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 189...

VALID 252338Z - 260115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 189 CONTINUES.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM SCNTRL
MO SWD INTO CNTRL AR FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE LINE MOVES EWD...A WW MAY
BECOME NECESSARY EAST OF WW 187 AND WW189 LATER THIS EVENING.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER SW MO WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS SW MO INTO WCNTRL AR. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOCATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
A CNTRL PLAINS UPPER-LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET OVER ECNTRL AR AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPROACHING 7.0 C/KM OVER CNTRL AND SRN MO. IN ADDITION...500
MB TEMPS ARE GENERALLY BELOW -16 C ACROSS THE WATCH AREAS. THIS
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SFC
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN AR ALONG WITH BACKED
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. AN ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH BOWING SEGMENTS MAINLY ACROSS
CNTRL AND SRN MO WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CURRENTLY VERY
STEEP.

.BROYLES.. 04/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...

34689138 34639290 35699315 36869331 38499386 38989311
38999235 38819184 38049140 37059120 35629105

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