SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292319
MTZ000-WYZ000-300045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0618
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN MT...FAR NERN WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 292319Z - 300045Z
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASE AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING SERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...HOWEVER WEAK
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL MT/FAR NRN WY THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RATHER WEAK THUS FAR.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF PEAK HEATING AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN TSTM INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY REACHED THE
UPPER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 40S. AS A RESULT OF SURFACE
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 35 TO 40 DEGREES...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD AID IN GUSTY WINDS AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS MATURE AND
EVENTUALLY COLLAPSE. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES
GENERALLY AOB 750 J/KG. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...LATEST VAD
PROFILER OUT OF BILLINGS INDICATES AROUND 45 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR.
THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LP SUPERCELLS AND AN
ASSOCIATED LARGE HAIL THREAT.
.GRAMS.. 04/29/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...
44450723 45410822 45850873 46120907 46670982 47070957
47170871 47200745 47060639 46710541 45850471 44700490
44420562 44310637
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