MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0619

ACUS11 KWNS 292335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292334
TXZ000-300100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0619
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292334Z - 300100Z

CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE SRN EDGE OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

STRONG DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITHIN SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS A VERY UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR SITUATED OVER SCNTRL TX THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...AREAS OF
INTENSE CONVECTION WERE ONGOING ACROSS WEST TX...ALONG AND NORTH OF
A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW/COLD POOL BOUNDARY THAT ARCS SWWD AND THEN
WWD FROM NWRN TX TO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY...BUT A FEW PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS...EXIST SOUTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM FORT STOCKTON SOUTH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
INTO COAHUILA MEXICO.

GIVEN PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX ON SELY/UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY WEAK TO MODEST CAPPING...IT IS
EXPECTED THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN
INTENSITY WHILE DEVELOPING EAST WITH THE UPPER FORCING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW MAY KEEP THE GREATER
SEVERE POTENTIAL EAST OF SAN ANTONIO AREA UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...PATTERN DOES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF FORWARD PROPAGATING
SEVERE MCS WITH WIND/HAIL AND TORNADO THREATS IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE TRANS-PECOS REGIONS.
THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO.

.CARBIN.. 04/29/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

27809850 27659944 28010000 29110053 30060059 30629989
30679932 30699839 30209785 29589761 28319784

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