SWODY1
SPC AC 090551
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2007
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN...CNTRL
AND SCNTRL TX...
..SRN PLAINS...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN STATES/NRN MEXICO WILL FINALLY
EJECT EWD ONTO THE SRN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
LOW-ROLLING PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL PROBABLY EXPAND
NEWD INTO PARTS OF NWRN TX AND OK DURING THE AFTN. MOST OF THIS
AREA HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND ONLY ISOLD HAIL/GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR ORGANIZED SVR STORMS WILL EXIST
FROM THE BIG BEND AND WRN EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION SEWD INTO NRN
COAHUILA WEDNESDAY AFTN. HERE...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY
RECOVER FROM NOCTURNAL MCS/S AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SELY AND
MAINTAINS FAVORABLE MOISTURE. DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...ESPECIALLY AS COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ASSOCD WITH THE TROUGH SPREAD EWD. THUS...TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FROM THE SWRN TX MOUNTAINS INTO THE WRN EDWARDS PLATEAU BY
AFTN...THEN GROW UPSCALE AS THEY HEAD ESEWD DURING THE EVENING.
UPPER FLOW WILL BE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...ROUGHLY 45-50 KTS
AT H5 ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...BOOSTING BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR
MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WIND THREATS INCREASING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL-ERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. SRN END OF THIS MCS MAY
MAINTAIN STRONGEST INTENSITY AS IT MOVES OFF OF THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL AND MOVES TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VLY. THOUGH INCREASING
WLY FLOW WOULD ARGUE FOR A POSSIBLE ORGANIZED SVR SYSTEM TO MOVE
ACROSS SCNTRL TX...ERN EXTENT OF THE SVR SHOULD BE MODULATED BY
INCREASING CAP AND LWR THETA-E VALUES IN THE LWR TERRAIN.
..ARKLATEX REGION...
A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION...BOTH ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND TO
THE WEST OF A BROAD CONFLUENCE ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF A ERN STATES
RIDGE. DIURNALLY BASED TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK AND LOW PROBABILITIES
OF AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST OR HAILSTONE WILL BE MAINTAINED.
..CNTRL GRTLKS REGION...
IMPULSE THAT SHED FROM THE WRN STATES TROUGH AND BECAME ABSORBED
WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CNTRL
GRTLKS REGION WEDNESDAY. BAND OF SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD MOVE INTO SWRN ONTARIO LATER IN THE DAY. LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST IN WAKE OF THIS PCPN
AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALOFT DURING PEAK HEATING. STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE HAIL/HIGH WINDS.
.RACY/JEWELL.. 05/09/2007
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