Wednesday, May 9, 2007

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 090557
SWODY2
SPC AC 090556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2007

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY AND TX COASTAL PLAINS...

..NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WITH WSWLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. MODEL
FORECASTS DEVELOP A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW
MOVING THIS FEATURE ENEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. A 50 KT
MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CREATE
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
STEEP LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE STRONG SHEAR SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE THAT STRONG AND THE
THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

..TX COAST AND SABINE RIVER VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED-LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SHEAR
PROFILES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT. FURTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAINS...VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE STRONGER AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
STEEPER JUST TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER. AS A
RESULT...A CONCENTRATED AREA WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST IN THE
TX COASTAL PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..NERN STATES...
A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EWD INTO THE NERN U.S. THURSDAY. A
WELL-FOCUSED VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. IN RESPONSE TO
THE LIFT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN WRN PA AND WRN NY WITH THE CONVECTION
SPREADING EWD INTO THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
REGION...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.BROYLES.. 05/09/2007

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