SWODY3
SPC AC 090734
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2007
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...
..NRN PLAINS AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL
ROCKIES BY FRIDAY WITH STRONG WLY FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS MT
AND THE DAKOTAS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL FORECAST DEVELOP AN AXIS
OF INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM SD EXTENDING WNWWD
INTO SRN MT WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY LOCATED IN CNTRL AND ERN
SD. ALTHOUGH STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...THE LATEST NAM
AND GFS MODELS DEVELOP A SMALL MCS IN ERN SD FRIDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST
WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING.
..LOWER MS VALLEY...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST TX IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MODEL
FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS TEMPS
WARM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK BUT A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR LOCALLY MAXIMIZED
INSTABILITY.
.BROYLES.. 05/09/2007
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