SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090844
MIZ000-WIZ000-091115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WI...MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 090844Z - 091115Z
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF WI AND MI THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL. THREAT SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
A COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE HAS EVOLVED FROM THE LARGER SCALE
POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. THIS FEATURE APPEARS
TO BE ACCELERATING EWD AND STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THIS MORNING. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DPVA...COUPLED
WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WERE CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN
TSTM COVERAGE FROM WI EWD ACROSS MI OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE
MAY EXIST A LIMITED/NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR WITHIN THE ERN QUADRANT OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. STRONGER
UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND A VARIETY OF SPC HAIL GUIDANCE WAS
SUGGESTING HAILSTONE DIAMETERS SHOULD REMAIN AOB 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.
A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
.CARBIN.. 05/09/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...
43359034 44399133 44969210 46288977 46548711 46128501
44858533 44198641 43768728
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