SWOD48
SPC AC 090855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2007
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
..GREAT PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD FLATTENING A GREAT PLAINS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NCNTRL STATES. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND SUGGESTING MCS DEVELOPMENT AND
ISOLATED SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A COLD FRONT SWD INTO THE CNTRL U.S.
SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT COULD SHIFT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY
MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL PATTERN OVER
MUCH OF THE CNTRL STATES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO FORECAST AN
ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA ATTM.
.BROYLES.. 05/09/2007
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