Monday, May 14, 2007

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 140940
SWODY3
SPC AC 140939

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY BE REDUCED TO PORTIONS OF THE
GULF STATES AND THE SRN ROCKIES BY DAY3 AS SFC FRONT SCOURS THE
INTERIOR STATES EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF
MODEST INSTABILITY DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LACKING ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH GENERALLY WNWLY FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 10-20
KT AT 500MB.

..NEW MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD READILY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING ELY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL INTRUSION
FORCES MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION ACTUALLY DEPICT VEERING PROFILES
WITH HEIGHT...THOUGH MARGINAL BULK SHEAR...ON THE ORDER OF 20KT.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION MAY DEVELOP WEAK CIRCULATIONS
INDICATIVE OF SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE GIVEN THE MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY.

..CENTRAL GULF COAST...

FARTHER EAST...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SWD MOVING COLD
FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM CNTRL
MS...SWWD INTO SERN TX. IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE
FORCING/ASCENT...IT APPEARS SFC HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL
BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL ALONG WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...MUCH OF WHICH SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

.DARROW.. 05/14/2007

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