SWOD48
SPC AC 140941
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
..DISCUSSION...
00Z GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS
RIDGE DURING THE DAY6-8 TIME FRAME AS UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD. MORE RECENT RUNS OF
THIS MODEL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...RATHER
THAN DIG A PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. GIVEN
THAT THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL AVAILABLE FOR THIS FORECAST...AND
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR AN OUTLOOK OF SEVERE ACROSS
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND.
.DARROW.. 05/14/2007
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