SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211934
SDZ000-212100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/WRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 211934Z - 212100Z
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR TSTMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SVR...ACROSS WRN/CNTRL SD LATE AFTN/EVE...LIKELY REQUIRING WW
ISSUANCE.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER WRN SD WITH
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO VCNTY RAP. AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME VERY WARM WITH SFC TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO
THE MID 80S WHILE MAINTAINING BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
INITIAL TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS WRN ND...CLOSER TO THE
STRONGER LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALL AXIS. BUT...LATER IN THE
AFTN...COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL HEATING AND SRN PERIPHERY OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS SKIRTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM
INITIATION FARTHER S ACROSS SD.
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP SSWLY COMPONENT
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR NOTED IN THE LOWEST 6KM. AS A
RESULT...MULTICELL STORMS MAY TAKE ON A LINEAR MODE QUICKLY WITH
LARGE HAIL THE PREDOMINANT THREAT GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD SLOWLY INTO CNTRL SD/SCNTRL ND DURING THE
EVENING AS THE FLOW REGIME REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING
BOUNDARIES.
.RACY.. 05/21/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...
43160334 45930297 45919928 43249978
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