SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211917
LAZ000-TXZ000-212015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 211917Z - 212015Z
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS SERN TX. LOCALLY
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES MAY YIELD AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORM TRENDS.
WELL DEFINED MCV CONTINUES NEWD ACROSS S CNTRL TX. AREA WIND
PROFILES SHOW ENHANCED FLOW FIELDS WITH THIS FEATURES WITH MID LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS OF 40-50 KTS. THIS IS ATOP VEERING LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PROFILES...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MOIST ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY. GPS PW VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER 1.50 INCHES WITH 65-67 F
DEWPOINTS NOW W OF THE HOUSTON AREA. GIVEN CONTINUED
HEATING...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AND A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARD TO THIS MCV IS EXACTLY WHERE FORCING WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE.
.JEWELL.. 05/21/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
28619591 29799621 30529711 30899763 30989836 31649859
32379849 32609810 32479641 32039552 31309478 30569422
29729384 28819540 28769560
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