WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 282

WWUS20 KWNS 211914
SEL2
SPC WW 211914
NDZ000-220400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MINOT NORTH DAKOTA TO 25 MILES EAST OF LEMMON SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO ALONG NNE/SSW PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN WRN PART OF WW.
OTHER STORMS MAY FORM A BIT LATER ALONG ACTUAL COLD FRONT IN FAR WRN
ND. STRENGTHENING DEEP SSWLY SHEAR DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPR
LOW...COUPLED WITH CONTINUED SFC HEATING...WILL CREATE SETUP
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND
AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO
A BROKEN LINE...WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES CONTINUING TO POSE A
THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22030.

..CORFIDI

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