SWODY1
SPC AC 050530
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT WED SEP 05 2007
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NRN UT/ERN
ID/SWRN MT INTO WY/NWRN CO...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD...AS A
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN U.S. DEPARTS EWD INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. OVER THE WEST...A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WHILE SEVERAL FEATURES MOVE NEWD ACROSS
THE SWRN AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. MEANWHILE OVER THE ERN CONUS...A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL.
..NRN UT/ERN ID INTO WY/NWRN CO...
WHILE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED...WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
BASIN EWD INTO WY/CO AS PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH 50 KT FLOW AT H5 FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WITH ORGANIZED STORMS/STORM
SEGMENTS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN UT/ERN ID BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL.
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS WY/NWRN CO
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SOME THREAT PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN...
COMBINATION OF THE LIKELIHOOD OF A CAPPED WARM SECTOR AND STRONGER
FLOW REMAINING CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL AS FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO COULD
OCCUR IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO MARGINAL HAIL WITH ELEVATED STORMS ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
..SRN UT ACROSS AZ...
WHILE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER AND STORMS NOT QUITE AS NUMEROUS AS
FURTHER N...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN
UT/AZ...ON SRN FRINGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN.
IF CLOUDS STREAMING NWD FROM HURRICANE HENRIETTE DO NOT HINDER
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION...A FEW LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO SEVERE LEVELS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS.
.GOSS/GRAMS.. 09/05/2007
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