SWODY2
SPC AC 050537
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT WED SEP 05 2007
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...
..CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...
DIFFICULT FCST FOR THU GIVEN MODEL DISCREPANCIES. TRENDS IN SLOWING
THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE GRT BASIN UPR LOW SEEM REASONABLE OWING
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO EVENTUALLY
PHASE WITH THE NRN BRANCH OF THE WLYS AND TRANSLATE TO THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS ON THU ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST 60-METER H5 HEIGHT FALLS. AT
THE SFC...A LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER CNTRL SD AND MIGRATE NEWD ALONG
A FRONT INTO NRN MN BY THU EVENING WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD INTO PARTS OF SRN
NEB AND KS THU AFTN/EVE AND LIKELY BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT BY
EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS ERN NEB AND NWRN KS.
A NARROW PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE
CNTRL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPR MS VLY ON THU. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPR IMPULSE...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG IN NRN
MN TO 1500+ J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND SD.
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING N OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN
MN AND ND MUCH OF THE DAY WHERE MODEST WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BE
MAINTAINED ALONG THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER EML. THESE STORMS MAY
GROW STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SVR FRI AFTN/EVE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP/BACKBUILD SWWD
TOWARD HIGHER INSTABILITY IN SD LATER IN THE DAY. AS STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THE TROUGH FINALLY ARRIVES LATE FRI
AFTN/EARLY EVE...OTHER TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SWD FROM PARTS OF
SD ALONG THE DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH INTO NEB. SRN EXTENT OF HIGHER
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MODULATED BY STRONGER CINH ACROSS KS.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TO START THE
DAY...BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCD MID-LEVEL SPEED
MAX APPROACH THE REGION. THUS...STORMS MAY TAKE A WHILE TO
ORGANIZE...WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE BEING DELAYED UNTIL
EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODEST INSTABILITY AND MAGNITUDE OF
FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND POTENTIAL.
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ENEWD TOWARD MN WITH A DECREASING SVR THREAT
THU NIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES. HOWEVER...A SMALL MCS OR TWO MAY
PERSIST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS ALONG THE NOSE OF A SECONDARY LLJ
MAX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE AT LEAST ISOLD HAIL/GUSTY WIND THREATS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
.RACY.. 09/05/2007
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