SWODY1
SPC AC 130546
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..HUMBERTO...
HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATER THIS MORNING ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST...THEN TRACK SLOWLY INTO CNTRL LA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...EXCEPT WITHIN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION
CENTER...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR WILL EXIST
FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AT TIMES. ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG/EAST OF LOW CENTER TRACK...MAINLY ACROSS LA AND A
SMALL PORTION OF SERN TX. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WILL NOT UPGRADE
TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK FOR TORNADOES GIVEN THE COMPACT
NATURE/INTENSITY OF WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH HUMBERTO. REF NHC
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HUMBERTO.
..KS...
SURFACE PRESSURES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SHIFT INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE PERIOD. FRONTAL POSITION AT 00Z SHOULD
EXTEND FROM CNTRL WI...SWWD INTO CNTRL KS WHERE STEEPEST BOUNDARY
LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE AT TIME OF WIND SHIFT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL/SWRN KS SUGGEST SFC-BASED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN STRONGEST ZONE OF CONVERGENCE.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE
LEVELS. CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITHIN POST
FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SWRN KS. EVEN SO...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
WANE CONSIDERABLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
.DARROW/GUYER.. 09/13/2007
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