SWODY2
SPC AC 130604
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OH/WRN
PA/WRN NY AND THE WV PANHANDLE...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY REGION...AS ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO
THE NORTHEAST/SEWD TO THE GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE S CENTRAL
CONUS...WHILE WEAK UPPER LOW/POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH LINGERS OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..WRN NY/WRN PA/ERN OH/NRN WV...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AS MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIMITED
HEATING RESULT IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION /AROUND 500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON/. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
LINEARLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH MODERATELY-STRONG /30
TO 50 KT/ ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER HALF
OF THE TROPOSPHERE...IT APPEARS THAT LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BECOME A THREAT FROM THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE
SYSTEM SHIFTS EWD ACROSS WRN PA/WRN NY. THOUGH THE FRONT -- AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS -- SHOULD APPROACH NEW ENGLAND
LATE...STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE
THREAT TO DIMINISH WITH TIME.
..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE
AND VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD HINDER
MOST WARM-SECTOR DEVELOPMENT. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL
LIKELY EXIST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE
EVENING...WHERE AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
JET SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION.
WHILE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...20 TO
30 KT NWLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS...WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO BE MARGINAL HAIL N OF
THE FRONT.
.GOSS.. 09/13/2007
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