DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151956
SWODY1
SPC AC 151954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A MESOSCALE LOW IS PRESENT ACROSS FAR
SE CO WITH A THERMAL AXIS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE WRN TX PANHANDLE.
SBCAPE VALUES LOCALLY EXCEED 2000 J/KG ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN FAR SE CO NEAR THE SFC LOW.
THIS WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SE CO AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE NM OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT IN A REGION WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ASSOCIATED
WITH AN EWD EXTENTION OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST
/REF MCD 1969/. HOWEVER...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO
LIMITED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE
CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
MODEL FORECASTS ALSO DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN KS
LATER TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET. A HAIL POTENTIAL MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
WITHIN THIS CLUSTER.

..SRN AZ...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM THE GULF
OF CA ACROSS SW AZ. DEWPOINTS EWD ACROSS SRN AZ ARE IN THE 50S F AND
MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. WARM SFC TEMPS
AND THE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HAVE BECOME VERY STEEP WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS.

.BROYLES.. 09/15/2007

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