SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152009
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-152215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1969
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO...SW KS...PARTS OF TX/OK PNHDLS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152009Z - 152215Z
INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...NEAR SPRINGFIELD...IN CENTRAL BACA COUNTY. THIS IS WHERE
DESTABILIZATION HAS BECOME MAXIMIZED...NEAR INTERSECTION OF
THERMAL/MOISTURE RIDGE AXES...IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
WITHIN HIGH PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH. WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER FORCING
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEAK BENEATH BROAD MID/UPPER
RIDGE...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 23-00Z SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN
RATHER ISOLATED. BUT...A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION/GROWTH OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY SEEMS PROBABLE...WITH AN ADDITIONAL STORM OR TWO
POSSIBLE...AS MIXED LAYER CAPE PEAKS AROUND 2000 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...IN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO THE EAST
OF THE SURFACE LOW. AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS POSSIBLE... SUPPORTED
BY FAVORABLE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 25-30 KT SOUTHERLY 850 FLOW
BENEATH 20-30 KT 500 WIND FIELDS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPSCALE
CONVECTIVE GROWTH COULD OCCUR AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AFTER
00Z. BUT...THIS WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH STABILIZING TRENDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY NOT PERSIST LONG THEREAFTER.
.KERR.. 09/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
37530254 38230214 38320131 37720042 37160042 36800027
36190117 36300205 36760238 36950254
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