SWODY3
SPC AC 230721
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO...A SECOND
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...THUS MAINTAINING A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...WHILE
SAGGING MORE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THOUGH THIS FRONT
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION...
LIMITED DESTABILIZATION /MIXED-LAYER CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/ IS
FORECAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY
NNEWD...WHILE SOMEWHAT GREATER CAPE IS FORECAST FARTHER SWWD INTO
AR/ERN OK/NERN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG TRAILING PORTIONS OF
THE FRONT. CONVERSELY...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT /MID-LEVEL FLOW 30 TO
40 KT/ IS FORECAST WITHIN LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...WITH MUCH WEAKER FLOW EXPECTED FROM AR SWWD. AS A
RESULT...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THIS FRONT. RELATIVELY GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS
TO EXIST FROM ROUGHLY SERN MO ENEWD INTO OH/LOWER MI -- WHERE
ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND AT LEAST SOME CROSS-BOUNDARY
COMPONENT MAY RESULT IN A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH
STRONGER STORM SEGMENTS. OVERALL HOWEVER...THREAT ATTM APPEARS TO
BE BELOW SLIGHT RISK THRESHOLDS.
.GOSS.. 09/23/2007
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