Sunday, September 23, 2007

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 230853
SWOD48
SPC AC 230852

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

..DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE TROUGHS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE
COUNTRY DAYS 4-6. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO EXIST DAY
7 /I.E. SAT. SEPT. 29/ ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHEN LONG-RANGE MODELS
HINT THAT A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MAY AFFECT THIS AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR DEPICTION
OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM -- AND ARE OFFSET WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING BY ROUGHLY 12 HOURS. THUS -- WHILE AN AREA WILL NOT BE
OUTLOOKED ATTM...AN AREA COULD BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF THIS
REGION LATER FORECASTS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THIS OVERALL
SCENARIO.

.GOSS.. 09/23/2007

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