SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242052
KSZ000-NEZ000-242145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NEB INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 242052Z - 242145Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE LOW NE OF GRI WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH NWRN KS /S OF GLD/ INTO
E-CNTRL CO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/CONFLUENCE ZONE WAS ALSO ANALYZED
FROM THIS LOW SSWWD THROUGH N-CNTRL KS TO E OF DDC. GROWING CUMULUS
CONVECTION OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT PRE-FRONTAL
AIR MASS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SURFACE BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...NAMELY FROM GRI SWWD INTO WRN KS.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS NRN EXTENSION OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH/CONFLUENCE ZONE BY 25/00Z...OWING LARGELY TO CONTINUED
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
CURRENT VWPS/PROFILERS INDICATE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEARS OF 35-40 KT/ TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION/UPDRAFT
ROTATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY FACTORS LIMITING A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ARE THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND RESULTANT MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J
PER KG/. STILL SOME THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ONCE
STORMS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP.
.MEAD.. 09/24/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...DDC...GLD...
38920189 39929992 40979829 40819770 40439761 39859781
39499833 39289869 38979962 38430091 38410115
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment