SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242054
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-242300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL IA INTO
EASTERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 242054Z - 242300Z
THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ROUGHLY
BISECTING MN...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST IA/EASTERN
NEB. WHILE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR...SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT/FRONTAL
FORCING AND ERODING CINH SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN IA AND EASTERN
NEB. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS WITH EAST EXTENT ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR...SPECIAL 18Z RAOBS FROM MINNEAPOLIS/OMAHA...IN
ACCORDANCE WILL LATEST REGIONAL PROFILER/WSR-88D VWP DATA...SUGGEST
AROUND 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXISTS ALONG/JUST EAST OF
THE SURFACE FRONT. LARGELY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE DOMINANT...WITH ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/MODEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVORING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. POTENTIALLY SEVERE
HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.GUYER.. 09/24/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
44569441 45049371 44489222 43249213 41459446 40519624
41109730 41999680 43449546
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