SWODY1
SPC AC 261242
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT FRI OCT 26 2007
VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
TODAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE TONIGHT.
LONG FETCH OF SOUTHERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VERY MOIST
AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FROM PARTS OF FL INTO NY/PA.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS REGION
ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
..NC/VA...
ONE AREA OF SOME POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS LATER TODAY AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO BECOME
PROGRESSIVE. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM CENTRAL NC
INTO EASTERN VA BY 06Z. THERE IS A NARROW AXIS ALONG THIS LOW TRACK
WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. OTHERWISE...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
.HART/BOTHWELL.. 10/26/2007
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