SWODY1
SPC AC 270435
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT FRI OCT 26 2007
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER IL WILL EJECT RAPIDLY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY...THEN INTO THE NERN STATES SATURDAY EVENING
IN RESPONSE TO A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS S
CNTRL CANADA AND THE NRN PLAINS. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS SRN QUEBEC WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD DURING THE DAY.
..DELMARVA THROUGH NJ...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AS SLY LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE DELMARVA THROUGH NERN U.S.
IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...BY MID-DAY THE
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED TO NEAR THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE PRESENCE OF NEAR 70
DEWPOINTS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...WEAK LAPSE RATES...DEEP MOIST
PROFILES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP
SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS FOR ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN
EXPECTED INSUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING...MOST STORMS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR
TWO AT BEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN IN LAYERS WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE -15C SUGGESTING
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE SPARSE.
.DIAL/GRAMS.. 10/27/2007
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