SWODY1
SPC AC 270046
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT FRI OCT 26 2007
VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..ERN NC THROUGH THE DELMARVA REGION...
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWD THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS
AND MID ATLANTIC AHEAD OF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY.
A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S PERSISTS
OVER ERN NC AND SERN VA SOUTH OF A SW-NE ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE 00Z RAOB DATA SHOW MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES WITH WEAK LOW-MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THIS IS RESULTING IN VERY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THIS REGION TONIGHT. THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND NERN
STATES AS UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. SOME NWD
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND ADVECTION OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONGER LOW LEVEL
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN COOL SECTOR. EVEN IN WARM
SECTOR THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN VERY
MARGINAL...SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIMITED.
..OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI...
A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NERN IND INTO SWRN OH WITHIN A
NW-SE ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH VORT MAX LIFTING NWD ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW. A NARROW
AXIS OF HEATING OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY BENEATH COLDER AIR ALOFT IN
PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT (6.5 C/KM) LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR ANY THREAT FOR HAIL...AND
LIGHTNING FREQUENCY MAY DECREASE AS ACTIVITY LIFTS NWD INTO LOWER MI
TONIGHT.
.DIAL.. 10/27/2007
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