SWODY1
SPC AC 261623
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT FRI OCT 26 2007
VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
LARGE CUT-OFF LOW OVER MID MS VALLEY WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING N WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE E AND PICK UP SPEED THIS FORECAST PERIOD
IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF UPSTREAM TROUGH.
SLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD THRU ATLANTIC
STATES. AN EXPANDING AREA OF CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
MID MS VALLEY UPPER SYSTEM. GIVEN THE LACK OF SURFACE HEATING AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
..NC/VA...
ONE AREA OF SOME POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS LATER TODAY AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO BECOME
PROGRESSIVE. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM CENTRAL NC
INTO EASTERN VA BY 06Z. THERE IS A NARROW AXIS ALONG THIS LOW TRACK
WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. OTHERWISE...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
.HALES/GUYER.. 10/26/2007
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