SWODY2
SPC AC 261713
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT FRI OCT 26 2007
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..EAST COAST...
UPPER LOW OVER MO WILL EJECT EWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
DAY1...THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE DAY2 AS NEXT IN A SERIES OF SPEED
MAXIMA DROP SEWD ACROSS MN INTO WI. AS THIS FEATURE OPENS UP...IT
SHOULD FORCE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...TRAILING INTO THE FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS
VA...NWD INTO THE NERN U.S. IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER HEIGHT
FALLS. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE FORCING THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE
THE POOR LAPSE RATE/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS WILL STRUGGLE FOR
ANY MEANINGFUL BUOYANCY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ROOTED WELL ABOVE 850MB ACROSS SRN NY...WITH
LOWER CLOUD BASES INTO SRN VA WHERE SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 60S. EVEN SO...MEAGER SFC-BASED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WILL LIMIT OVERALL UPDRAFT STRENGTH. GUSTY WINDS
AND PERHAPS A MARGINAL SEVERE GUST IS ABOUT ALL THAT CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO SRN NY THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
.DARROW.. 10/26/2007
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