SWODY2
SPC AC 230539
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CST THU NOV 22 2007
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
.SYNOPSIS...
FULL-LATITUDE...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH INITIALLY FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO NRN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO FRACTURE WITH NRN STREAM
PORTION OF WAVE TRANSLATING RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM PART OF TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO
A CLOSED CIRCULATION WHILE MOVING ESEWD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NWRN
GULF OF MEXICO WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD TOWARD THE
TX/LA COASTS.
..WRN AND CNTRL GULF COAST...
SLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE NWRN
INTO CNTRL GULF COAST WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM THERMAL AND MOISTURE
ADVECTIONS CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY
ONSHORE...TO THE N OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE FOR PARCELS ORIGINATING ABOVE NEAR SURFACE FRONTAL
INVERSION WITH MUCAPES AOB 500 J/KG.
THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS WHETHER SOME PORTION MODIFIED CP AIR MASS
CAN MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT /NAMELY OVER SRN LA/ WHERE AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF A TORNADO OR TWO
WOULD EXIST. CONSIDERABLE MODEL /BOTH ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC/
VARIABILITY EXISTS IN THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...NO SEVERE
PROBABILITIES WILL BE INTRODUCED ATTM.
.MEAD.. 11/23/2007
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